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Crumbling Facades

“Our Heads Are Round so our Thoughts Can Change Direction” [Francis Picabia]

What is money all about?

First the financial market in the United States failed. Constructs where a single person is responsible for the loss of 50 Billion US$ are just the top of an iceberg. That ice berg turned and we all feel it’s repercussions.

But it was not the U.S. that caused the problem, but the greed of financial managers and the corruptibility of the politicians that made it possible. German’s federal state banks had to be sold, only to learn the buying banks from the other states are simply in similar troubles.

Deutsche Bank manager Ackermann and Deutsch Bahn boss Medorn keep up the facade of the reasoning for the indecent salaries they and their buddies in other corporations pay themselves, blaming others in their companies for the problems their companies face. Isn’t it the CEO who is ultimately responsible? If he has his company not in check, he may not be worth his salary. If his company looses money, they make a bonus? When they fire people, they make another bonus? “No risk, just fun” the yellow press recently titled…

Companies asking for help, often “suddenly” coming up with hidden “treasures” and financing leaks often as high as the losses so far admitted. Oops. If I have a management that has no up to date information about their financial situation, I can imagine this in a start up or small company – but we talk “global players” here! My advise: Fire them! Sue them! You got to, they got to learn the basics of business before they are allowed any management job again!

Politicians having been informed as early as August about the financial troubles of German Hypo Real Estate but now claim their innocense?

In Russia, Oligarch Boris Abramovich lost first the control on AirUnion, which meanwhile “somewhat” restarted as Rossavia as a state airline, now looses Malev as well. His buddy Lebedev is out of a deal to take over German Öger Tours, he’s short on money – weren’t these the people anyone worldwide envied for their incredible wealth?

And wasn’t “U.S. President” a synonym for integrity? Thank you Mr. Bush… What a legacy for Barrack Obama.

So with all these crumbling facades, it is not the time for blame. But it’s time to roll up your sleeves and work to get us out of the mud hole these irresponsible and greedy idiots drove us all into. I am daily facing cases, where good people loose their jobs to managers, still thinking to cut heads is the solution. Or airline managers believing that it’s important to increase revenue at all cost. Flights take off fully booked but causing the airline to loose money?! That has nothing to do with bad sales, but with a bad, price-only-focussed strategy of short-sighted managers. Good service needs good people. But our industries miss to show their own strategy. What makes an airline commercially successful? More aircraft with less people? A drop in service? A university graduade being sent to the key account having no idea what a cross ticket is or what makes a travel reseller select one airline vs. another? Pay for coffee inflight? The next business for airports and catering companies is logically to have vending machines offering snacks and drinks at the gate (or on the aisle infront of the waiting room) at cost below that offered inflight…

But what keeps my mind busy is the question, why the facades visibly crumble, why we work in an industry where everyone tells me no one in his right mind would invest in? I did question the human “resource”-thinking. I hear from Lufthansa that the “Lufthanseat” (the employee news) is off reality. American Airlines staff tells me they have never heard of the company update video I remember from the 80s.

Our industry is like the opposite to the car industry, but not any better: Where they focus to build the big cars for big money and ignored the growing demand for low-consuming cars, our managers seek quick revenue at any cost…? Load factors and market share at the cost of yield and income.

We can learn from the current U.S. president. Airlines got to learn again that the manager is head of the family. That means (s)he also has to look after the family income and budget. But they got to get out of their glass domes, listen to staff and customers alike and finally start face reality!!! And come to grips and learn to make money!

Food For Thought – your thoughts about this sure are welcome…

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St. Florian’s Principle²

Oh holy dear St. Florian
Don’t burn my house
Take the neighbors one

Four related cases in the past weeks triggered this Food For Thought:

German Rail – remember Lufthansa…

The IT system of German Rail crashed, disabling not only the entire distribution for a day, but also the train guidance system EBULA causing major delays on train schedules, stranded passengers, the whole nine yards.

The German FVW titled its blog “That wouldn’t have happened in the past”. In m comment I referred to Lufthansa’s IT-crash in 2004 (German article). It is not impossible for IT to fail: A “99,9% up-time” is an +8 hour outage. Usually at the most busiest and inconvenient times.

Purely incidentally I was once at Frankfurt airport when the system failure disabled issuance of boarding passes. To date, I do not understand, why the staff just sat back and delayed boarding for “technical reasons” until I came, wrote the seat numbers on blank boarding passes and handed them out to the check-in agents. A wonder: NO single traveler sat on any middle seat, they either had a window or an aisle seat. I think that never happened ever since 😉 And that flight was about the only one that left that day “on schedule”…

But the believe in the invulnerability of the IT-systems is as unfounded at is is common. Contingency planning for any possible natural disaster, but none for the case of a computers black out! There were processes in place “b.c.” before computer. Have copy samples of “manual documents” dusting in a folder in the closet is not much of an investment, but it could be the difference to a cancelled operation. And for the case of a power outage just a box somewhere with enough copies for a 24 hour backup could not be that expensive either…

And even if you rely on it, German rail sure saved a few hundred Euros not investing on a cache memory for the train guidance system that would have saved them from major train delays…

Don’t they ever learn? Bean counters…

Oh holy dear St. Florian…

Striiike…

Image courtesy -die Welt-, click for full image series — Image courtesy “die Welt”, click for full image series

It is simply a miracle how lightly the passengers of U.S. Airways got out of a potentially fatal situation that is not uncommon in the aviation industry: Bird strike. Yes, the pilot is a hero, but as usual that means he has been faced with an impossible situation and by tons of luck was able to avoid desaster by a hair. As safe as flying is, accidents happen.

Reports do question the efficiency of the New York authorities. It’s not far from the hudson to central Manhattan. And a bird strike can disable steering capabilities… Let’s say, they got another wake up call.

Friends called raising a discussion related to my WIG-idea. No, that one is also “stalled”. But yes, In case of a bird strike, a WIG would not crash but simply drop some meters and float. And despite the fact that I am sure, countries in the tropical belt, especially faced with global warming should have a vital interest to push that technology, Mauritian Air Taxi just ordered a fleet replacement using standard engines.

Oh holy dear St. Florian…

Nokia

Yes, I know gloating is not nice. But a report last week on Nokia is a case that does make me smile. Nokia in 2007 shut down their plant in Bochum from one day to the other to replace it with a newly built plant in Romania. The result: Nokia’s reputation went through the floor (they became “the example” in Germany), their sales dropped, the Romanian plant only employs less than half of what they planned for. So the bean counters were miserably wrong with their previous assessments about the advantages for Nokia.

The closing of the report said something like: In the retrospect of the financial crisis, sure Nokia was just a little premature, but it shows how wrong it is to focus on numbers and short term profit only, underestimating social cohesion in crisis. It’s tough to calculate people’s reactions. And yes, more than 1.300 of the 2.500 former employees still have no new job… Them having the usual 50-100 friends and relatives in direct vicinity plus the usual 50-100 friends of these friends that are being aware of that, even on a conservative calculation that accounts easily up to some 5-10 million “lost customers”.

Oh holy dear St. Florian …

Uptime

Speaking with the IT-expert in a German tour operator about “dynamic packaging” he gave an example of his counterparts in other companies to target 70% uptime of their GDS-based functions. The issue we discussed being “time outs” on API-calls on the GDS causing vital systems to stall. We agreed. 70% is a farce! 99.x is the necessity. 99.9+ must be the goal. Having been pace makers on the IT-networking since back in the 60s (SITA, Sabre & Co), the travel industry has lost its drive.

Asking about why the tool they use does not have a function to check on API-calls for a time-out, I was told that the IT-company developing the tool did develop it for “agent use”, not for an “Automator” working unsupervised…

Oh holy dear St. Florian …

Do you have other such cases?

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IATA says Aviation declines. Really?

According to IATA General Secretary Giovanni Bisignani, aviation warns of a decline in global aviation. But is that reasonable? Yes, global economy suffers. But look at the global maps and you will find a clear relation between airport and decent aviation and the size of cities. Aviation is a key motivator for business, but the travel industry suffers from a major inferiority complex:

Travel Agents: Any financial consultant who at the end of the year gets you €1,000 interest a year will be decently paid, but the consultant where you spend €5,000 for a vacation shall work for free?

Airlines: Global economy needs aviation. But thanks to price dumping (and not only since “low cost”), airlines operate for years at the edge of commercial harakiri.

In December, I was asked by an airline manager, what I would change in the airline industry if I’d have a chance. What I mentioned, many of you heard from me before again and again:
Remove the price tag from the tickets! No other industry in the world provides the information about the price the seller pays for the product. Or you would not buy a car or even a yoghurt without arguing with the cashier about a discount! This is a relic from the decades when airline tickets were decently priced and the travel agent truly was an agent, receiving 9% commission. At the time, many agencies cross-financed other business with their airline sales. An Economy Class ticket for €2,000 at 9% was a nice deal… The hotels, at the time frequently not paying the commission were “negligible”. That’s “the good old days”! Gone.
But if the travel “agent”, or better the travel consultant sells today, they get no commission. Then why do the airlines show the price? It is totally outdated thinking that must be addressed.

The second thought I had in mind I mentioned last week: Airline sales is “suddenly” en vogue again. The managers promoting sales-free and sales-independent “self service” and “internet” without a strategy find themselves the most hit by the financial crisis and the recessive commerce. Because cheap flights sell themselves, but they are also the most vulnerable. Selling a product is a question about long-term relation. So better have or build a sales team with a personal reputation in their market. As they represent you.

Food For Thought. Please share yours 😉

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Revival Of The Sales Manager

In the past months, IATA secretary general Giovanni Bisignani has published one horror scenario for the airline industry after another. At the same time, I have worked with an airline that had always addressed e-Commerce as a part of the sales portfolio and in the past year increased their sales force beyond the airline’s growth figures. At the same time, they announced record revenue and earnings where their direct competitors struggle to survive.

The following focuses on airlines, but is similar in other industries (i.e. hotels).

Since 1994 I address Airline Sales & e-Commerce in my annual ASRA-presentations… One concern I try to communicate ever since is the need for airline sales managers to adopt the new technologies into their product portfolio. The stronger e-Commerce gets, the more important that knowledge becomes. But just lately a friend of mine, being Manager Scheduled Flights Procurement – sitting on the other side of the table – complained that many airline sales managers have no idea what their company does in regards to e-Commerce… Say what?!

In fact there are two issues I see in need to be addressed:

1. The new role of the airline sales manager
In a highly dynamic development on Airline Sales & e-Commerce, the new airline sales manager has to be fit to not only know what the own company does in that field, but he is also the scout to monitor what goes on in the market and report it.
But: Few airlines have yet build the structures and hirarchies to promote a cooperation between the IT and sales department! In many airlines, IT is higher valued than sales, so IT projects are pushed forward without sales justification. Say what?!

2. The new value of the airline sales manager
Why is it that companies like Easyjet or Southwest Airlines operate a network of sales managers and lately increase their sales forces? Might it be possible that “traditional sales” has an impact to their revenue…? Isn’t it enough to focus on Google Adwords? And why the heck are these airlines having a sales force continue to have the higher service classes (First, Business) and fill them? Could it probably be that the sales managers can sell these “high end products”, where e-Commerce competes mostly on the price level? Exclusively on the price level?

As I emphasized in the past years: Everybody can “sell” cheap. You do not need a sales manager for that. But to sell out of season and to be able to sell at higher rates, it is reasonable to look at all distribution tools and channels: IT/e-Commerce, Yield Management, Sales and Marketing. And run them in a concerted way to assure best outcome. And hey: This is called “Sales”… Say what?! 😀

Food for thought! What do you think about this?

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Lately major discussions in Germany and online are the various public “rating” sites. Using Qype myself and HolidayCheck for the hotel ratings and reviews, I am a mature online user, able to read as well between lines as when I read the catalogue of a tour operator…

From many of my replies here the extract: It’s hyped. So to get the right perspective, sit back and think about it for some minutes. As you hopefully know Shift Happens, we are facing an information flooding. Where in the “good old days” it was necessary to know the restaurant and hotel critics, the authors of the major travel guides, it is now necessary to also know the major online portals. But it is not necessary to search and review all and any blog entries somewhere. That is “lost in the noise”, just as it was without Internet, where the noise existed (called “word-to-mouth-propaganda”).

Where in the good old days, the books and critics published in print had the main impact to day-to-day operations, the Internet offers another advantage. If you had a bad reputation in the past, it took you at least a year to get an update (new management, renovation, …) into the next edition. In the Internet, this can be promoted much faster.
But as fast, a bad rating can be outsmarted by good customers. If you have a problem with service, it is not the rating that sucks, but you better improve the service quality and proactively market it. Like the good old “We listen to our customers”…

Everything becomes public (and published) these days. But the users resort back to “trusted brands”, of which some (like HolidayCheck) are new, but don’t ignore the value of printed travel guides. It’s a shift from “search available information” to “select”. Where information was rare, it is now flooding us: “Select” means to be able to qualify the valuable information from the noise. And for the rated company to learn, what information has impact on the customers – and which are “just another one” with minor impact.

Do not ignore them. But don’t let the makers of these sites qualify their importance for you. The only ones who can are your customers and you. So if approached by another of these important experts telling you what you have to do: Don’t let them unsettle you. Sit back, think about it. But keep in mind: These tools do have their value and after a hype peak and a disillusionary phase, they’ll be here to stay…

[Update: I did not move from Qype to Yelp, there’s many other such “tools” meanwhile and I was unhappy with the user management of Yelp]

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Old School – New School

Some of you have already read the Sapphilosophy-Blog I created in September as a result of another discussion with friends on philosophical issues like love, friendship, honor.

Very famous in Germany on the topic is “the Knigge”, his book “On Human Relations” being considered to date the guideline for respectful interpersonal relations.
In the past weeks, I was told to be “old school”, namely for the respect I have for people, but also about topics like loyalty or (personal) honor. These values are in short supply these days, but I am convinced it is the more necessary to hold up the flag.

Once more I was told this is my main weakness. Right. But being a weakness in business, I found it my great strength in life. I stay errect and look into the mirror with pride. Sure I made my share of mistakes, but is there anyone flawless? And I stand up to them. The same friend questioning this “weakness” asked me, how I could be so optimistic despite the treatment I received throughout my business life. That is because of my friends – mostly people like you, reading this blog. For you I am grateful.

I thought about it quite a while if I should address this topic in the Food For Thought blog, but the world is changing. Greed, arrogance and egomaniac arrogance are going out of fashion, the global financial crisis and people like Barrack Obama make us reconsider our values. In aviation and travel industry, we shall also consider how we treat our own, business partners and staff alike. And if it makes sense to save money at all cost.

Robert “Bob” Crandall was my topmost boss when I started in the airline industry back in the late 80s. He shaped the entire industry, but having met him just briefly, he has been a role model for me ever since. Under his management, the entire company was a family. Everyone worked for the benefit of the family. Suppliers were happy to deal with American Airlines. Sounds strange to you these days? Yeah. The bean counters took over.

Food For Thought: Can you look at your life with pride?

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Business Development in time of crisis

Looking at the financial crisis, many companies reconsider their sales focus. What I addressed in my ASRA-presentation this year suddenly seems to trigger. Everyone can sell cheap. So if you are in sales, you need to focus your attention on the products that need sales support.

This week, I had quite a discussion about the validity of my sales strategy and business development. Interesting enough, my supporter was an airline that just recently anounced another increase in net earnings. Their German team has also exceeded sales targets. The offense was voiced by an airline sales manager, who’s company just published another loss for the last quarter and is expected to accumulate overall losses this year.

The focus of the successful airline is on the specialists: Tour operators, travel agencies, corporates.
Anyone not having a focus on their destinations is serviced with a lower priority. Effort is only targeted to the specialists who they pamper and invest time to visit and invite. The elephants (consolidators, internet portals) producing large but price-driven turnover are running aside.

What we wondered is the focus of many managers on turnover, volume and market share, not on revenue. That’s the managers impressed by “large numbers” and quick volume, not caring about cost or long term relations. How long has the sales manager been the same to the customer? How experienced is the sales manager? What is your strategy?

Food For Thought: Especially the aviation industry is in need for a reevaluation of values. If I hear IATA-secretary general Giovanni Bisignani anounced a drop in passengers by 4.8%, in Asia even 7.8%. The airline industry is predicted to accumulate losses of 5.2 billion dollars this year?!

So if passenger numbers are going down, a logical consequence is to focus an increase in yield!

Do I miss anything? Want to change? Interested in Business Development?
Contact me.

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From Russia With Love …

This blog-post has been prepared, as are the next ones the next two weeks. I decided to go for an adventure trip to Russia. And no, not to Moscow or Saint Petersburg, but into the country.

The region I visit is addressing international markets but lacks a decent airline connection. In fact, there is one. But being expert for aviation distribution, I was simply unable to book the flight and have to travel from Moscow more than 12 hours by train. The flights I intended to fly out of Germany on were just cancelled on short notice. So I had to adjust my plans and that involved to stick within the schedule. Ad hoc changing the visa due to a flight cancellation? No way! Booking an affordable flight to Moscow? Nonrefundable. So I had to wait for the visa to be issued before I could book. Hotel? More expensive than in Berlin. So the entire trip turned out to be a preplanning nightmare and a bureaucratic Ironman challenge.
If I would like to do business there? There is a lot to be done and I work on a study to give them the look from the outside.

Thanks to exceptionally motivated people in the German Foreign Chamber of Commerce in Moscow, Olga Bleykhman, being a member of the Russian Marketing Guild in St. Petersburg, who became quickly a very close and valuable friend, Alla my personal translator in Magdeburg and long year friends such as Heinz, Richard or Mike, to mention some, I have been able to compile quite a detailed study, I am now trying to complete “on site”.
I will report upon return!

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General Sales Agents

This week I addressed the issue of General Sales Agents (GSA).

In general, the GSA is a very good idea. If you cannot afford your own staff, why not share with other companies just as yours? There are two major hurdles:

1. In many cases, the GSA is considered a “second class employee”, as they only spend a part of their time on your product. My recommendation: Have the key people (reservations, sales) invited within four weeks to your location to get familiar with your product, philosophy and work style. Have them meet the decision makers personally they need to have contact to. This will not only motivate them, but also make them truly represent you in their respective markets. Repeat this frequently. Your GSA sales representative(s) usually should be invited to attend your sales meetings. I have seen results by thus motivated staff, that exceeded the results of an entire airline office in another market. And listen to them. Their prime interest is (or should be) to increase your revenue and make your product sales stable.

2. In other cases, GSAs work on a “minimized effort” scheme. Instead of sharing the resources properly, they try to tweak the last dollar out of you, until you recognize they just drain you. Ensure to have an as close contact to their sales teams as you have to your own. Ensure to have a clear manpower commitment. It is reasonable for a GSA sales person to have three or four, either similar or complementing products. I have seen cases where one person was asked to fully represent six or more products.
That might work, if the products are complementary, but that is not the common case.
Assure to have your GSA benefit fair from all sales in their region. In that case they are interested to support you to spread your distribution channels. Otherwise they will try to keep all dropping through their office, limiting the market awareness.

So GSA can be a very good thing, there are many very good and motivated GSAs out there working 150% in their client’s interests. But ensure that the principal and the GSA work on the same goals. Set targets. Find a GSA that has experience in your market. Not only the branch, but also the global region. Ethics, work style, etc. do differ.

The GSA is not a panacea. They need reasonable funding. But usually, you can pay them a base fee covering their normal operations, with marketing funds depending on the revenue they generate. But check what interest they have to sell you!

If you have questions or wish to select a GSA in Europe, ask me. And if you want to build your team and seek experts for sales, business development, reservations, etc., let me know, there are some good out there seeking a decent job 😀

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Alternatives in Aviation – Cheating the Passenger?

The Cassandra-effect: When I addressed the situation on the crude oil market to airline managers earlier this year, looking back I feel like 1994, addressing the Internet: I was “the freak”.

The kerosine price explosion sped up the szenarios I did address. Just a brief recap of my theses: Flying will become a luxury again. How much longer until the low-cost-airlines need to update their models? The cost of operations exploding, airline managers become “creative” (the current FVW special addresses their dilemma). In order not to increase the visible price, airlines charge extra for each and every “standard” service. Kerosine charge, taxes, airport, credit card and even invented fees, a (increasing) fee for each and every bag, for the meal, the inflight entertainment, excessive passenger weight. This “procedure” is extremely short-sighted with a negative repercussion: The travelers feel cheated, the “public opinion” strikes back.
Airlines (not only the low cost) reduce frequencies, park aircraft. No longer records in aircraft orders, options are being returned to Airbus, Boeing, etc.. Am I the only one to see these facts? Kerosine-powered travel is doomed, new solutions will now be developed, tried – and succeed!

Some years ago, Jürgen Weber, at the time the boss of Lufthansa, questioned that the use of light crude oil may need to be confined to the aviation industry as all other industries would have possible replacements. So it is not the question that airline travel will become expensive again. Who in his right mind believes the crude oil will become cheaper again? Evolving into a luxury product, I question the “cost reduction” on staff and services. A friend lately compared it: They try to sell a Rolls Royce with wooden benches.

What now these weeks to me came nevertheless as a big surprise. In some of my presentations, I used this idea of a WIG powered with a hydrogen-engine as an example alternative to the fuel-consuming aircraft.
Meanwhile, I received a serious inquiry, asking if this is realistically possible. Research confirmed the feasability of the idea, so now the idea is being addressed with investors. Can it be true that I may become an “aircraft maker”???

While discussing this szenario ideas suddenly are being considered that have been Science Fiction from the 60s until today. Surprisingly even for me, who these people are, asking me for my ideas and opinions. Obviously, the prices finally exceeded the point, where such “Science Fiction” leaves the fiction and becomes a viable concept and a commercial possibility.

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Category: Aviation

German Rail – remember Lufthansa…

Striiike…

Nokia

Uptime