Again, this is a potpourri of Corona-related issues from discussions, calls, more webinars, news and other sources.
Corona Recovery Strategy
The first good strategy I see: Following an initial and enforced mass quarantine, get mass Corona tests (secure logistics and availability), isolate the infected and their contacts, recover economy. But to apply such strategy, Corona tests must become available in far greater numbers – governments must demand the production, secure the safe storage and the distribution logistics. Beyond the faintest shadow of doubt.
To achieve that, there must be self-service testers, similar to pregnancy tests. Preferably even without the need of large laboratories. But that medical researchers consider a challenge. Mass testing with automated analysis in pharmacies or paramedic offices could be available sometime May or June in the numbers needed. But that would require a semi-quarantine that long!
But even that given, is aviation ready for a recovery in times of an ongoing pandemic?
Aviation Recovery Strategy for Corona
For many years, I complain as I frequently contract some cold or catch some other meanness on my flights as a passenger. Since my spleen (organ) got removed as a collateral damage to a necessary removal of a benign tumor some years ago, I am more vulnerable to infections. But even after learning from earlier pandemics, there is still no standard airplane (or train or bus) disinfection. Neither are hotels prepared, unsanitary beds an ongoing source for hotel rating shows on TV and other media.
While normally, a daily disinfection my increase safety in-flight in normal times, a disinfection must be standard turnaround procedure during an aircraft turnaround! As Christine Negroni reported, airlines in the past years opted to ignore the issue – now it might be a bit late, but should be adopted. Though from experience I fear the halflife of such ideas being all to short.
The Profit Hunter
Another issue for aviation recovery is the need to recover the profits too. And while I would hope that airline managers would learn and change their stupid strategy of real, implied or imagined price wars, increasing the prices not just temporarily, but long-term to sustainable levels. Alone, from sad experience I’m afraid I fail to belief. I expect the airline managers to quickly worship the Golden Calfs of “Shareholder Value” and “Lowest Price” again.
As I keep emphasizing for years, if you want to make profit with an airline, you got to change the game! It’s what we invested years to develop the business case for. The same does apply to most airports, but they have a very different right to exist; with the proper strategy they could even operate losses and be justified.
The KOLIBRI.aero Use Case
Many of the discussions and experts sharing their experience envisions a very heavy toll on airlines, many going bust, market concentration increasing – but also new airlines coming. Based on USPs, a constant focus on a strong profitability, but also real and exemplary corporate social responsibility and sustainable developments, applying common but also new ideas to go up and beyond, but also creating profit from that, we developed KOLIBRI.aero.
What we do fail to attract is the (venture?) capital investment to start the development. While the 10-year plan covers thousands of jobs, diversified profit centers, all contributing to an exceptional ROI. Investors seeking to diversify their investments, seeking safe returns and a business concept that is prone to cash in on the recovery from such a crisis are welcomed to reach out to me. And if any of the readers of this blog know potential investors – please refer or (better) introduce them to us.
Aviation Technology Developments
While my friends in the aviation IT are not fired or sent off into short work or forced vacation, I commented on a post by Richard Maslen (CAPA/Blue Swan Daily) on digital transformation:
“From my experience in aviation IT since 1992, technology expenses remain the first to be shelved when money gets short. No matter the possibly instant savings by introducing them, most airline managers are “old school”, conservative. Experience. Exceptions apply.”
In a Poll yesterday within an aviator audience the fast majority expects themselves to focus on recovering their business and not on travel once the situation recovers. If our own focus more on business and less on travel, consider how industries without a “natural” interest in aviation will react. As mentioned yesterday, a poll focused on travel managers confirmed that they expect travel to be limited to absolute unavoidable until the a vaccine is commonly available. One of the tasks for the aviation industry will be to regain trust that it is “save to travel”.
Today, Lower Saxony (Germany) Minister of Interior announced plans in place for school not to recover before summer. Lufthansa went to short work, where the German government pays 60% of the net salary. They registered the short work for five months with an option for a full year. I doubt their management gave a single thought on to the publicity repercussions.
The Power of Positivity
Recent ESA data gained from the Copernicus Sentinel-5P satellite have shown a decline of air pollution over northern Italy coinciding with its nationwide lock-down to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19).
And this crisis is such a perfect use case for what we worked on to create KOLIBRI.aero (see above).
And I spend a lot of quality time with my kids. Crisis? What Crisis?
Food for Thought